AI tool forecasts new COVID variants – A new AI tool called EVEscape, developed by researchers at Harvard Medical School and the University of Oxford, can forecast new COVID variants before they emerge. The tool uses evolutionary and biological information to predict how the virus could change to escape the immune system.
In a study published in Nature, the researchers showed that EVEscape could have predicted the most frequent mutations and identified the most concerning variants for SARS-CoV-2 during the COVID-19 pandemic. The tool also made accurate predictions about other viruses, including HIV and influenza.
EVEscape works by first identifying all of the possible mutations that could occur in the virus. It then uses a machine learning algorithm to predict which of these mutations are most likely to occur and which ones are most likely to be harmful. The tool also takes into account the current state of the pandemic, such as the prevalence of different variants and the effectiveness of vaccines.
EVEscape could be used to help scientists develop more effective vaccines and therapies for SARS-CoV-2 and other rapidly mutating viruses. By predicting which variants are most likely to emerge in the future, scientists can focus their efforts on developing vaccines and therapies that are effective against these variants.
The researchers are now using EVEscape to look ahead at SARS-CoV-2 and predict future variants of concern. Every two weeks, they release a ranking of new variants. This information could help scientists to develop more effective vaccines and therapies, and to prepare for future outbreaks.
Why it matters: The approach could prove more efficient than lab-based testing, because it doesn’t rely on people becoming infected or getting vaccinated to develop antibodies.
- This could lead to better and quicker vaccines, including in the next pandemic.
How it works: Researchers developed a generative AI model that’s trained on historical viral sequences to predict ways in which the organism could mutate.
- They then added structural details about the virus, like regions most easily targeted by the immune system.
- To test its predictive power, the researchers drew on the trove of data about COVID-19 from the pandemic, and how the stealthy virus kept evolving.
What they found: When presented with ancestral strains of coronavirus from before the pandemic, the tool, called EVEscape, predicted the most frequent mutations and dangerous variants of SARS-CoV-2, the researchers wrote Wednesday in Nature.
- Forecasting mutations could help public health officials develop more effective countermeasures, potentially minimizing the human and economic toll of a pandemic.
- EVEscape is already being used to make predictions about other viruses, including HIV and influenza.
What they’re saying: “You can use these generative models to learn amazing things from evolutionary information — the data have hidden secrets that you can reveal,” senior author Debora Marks, an associate professor of systems biology at Harvard Medical School, said in a statement.
- “We underestimate the ability of things to mutate when they’re under pressure and have a large population in which to do so,” Marks said. “Viruses are flexible — it’s almost like they’ve evolved to evolve.”
What we’re watching: EVEscape is being used in real time to make predictions about how COVID will evolve next.
- The team ranks new variants on their website and is sharing the information with entities including the World Health Organization.
- They’re also testing EVEscape on understudied viruses such as Lassa and Nipah, which have pandemic potential.
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