Is Monkeypox Dangerous And The Next Pandemic? How It Compares To COVID-19

Monkeypox is a potential pandemic threat that is less dangerous than COVID-19. It’s a zoonotic disease caused by the Monkeypox virus, which emerged as a global health concern in recent years. In 2022, the World Health Organization (WHO) declared the Monkeypox outbreak a Public Health Emergency of International Concern (PHEIC), highlighting its potential to become a pandemic. This decision came as cases surged globally, with over 16,000 confirmed infections across 75 countries and 5 reported deaths at the time.

As the world continues to grapple with the ongoing COVID-19 pandemic, the rise of Monkeypox has sparked discussions about its pandemic potential and how it compares to the SARS-CoV-2 virus.

In June 2023, the monkeypox outbreak subsided significantly through concerted action by governments and impacted communities. On May 10, 2023, the WHO Director-General accepted the IHR Emergency Committee’s recommendation to lift the PHEIC status, while urging continued vigilance.

Research published in Frontiers in Public Health 2023 and ScienceDaily 2024 has provided valuable insights into the genomic changes and transmission dynamics of the Monkeypox virus. Studies have identified specific mutations in the virus that may contribute to its increased infectiousness and adaptability, raising concerns about its ability to become more widely transmitted among humans. Additionally, the 2022 Monkeypox outbreak has seen clusters of cases potentially linked to super-spreading events, further emphasizing the need for close monitoring and preparedness efforts.

While Monkeypox shares some similarities with COVID-19, such as the potential for global spread, the two diseases differ in several key aspects.

How Monkeypox Compares To COVID-19

Monkeypox is less dangerous than COVID-19 for several key reasons

Monkeypox is much less contagious than COVID-19. It primarily spreads through close, skin-to-skin contact and is unlikely to spread as rapidly as the airborne SARS-CoV-2 virus. It requires a much higher dose to become infected compared to COVID-19. Only symptomatic individuals with monkeypox rashes and lesions are infectious. Presymptomatic transmission is not thought to occur, unlike with COVID-19.

Monkeypox symptoms like fever, headache, muscle aches, and rashes are more distinctive than COVID-19’s broad spectrum of symptoms. The rashes are the most characteristic symptom of monkeypox. Monkeypox symptoms usually appear 1-2 weeks after infection, compared to 2-14 days for COVID-19.

Monkeypox is caused by a DNA virus that mutates much slower than the RNA-based SARS-CoV-2 virus. This means monkeypox is less likely to rapidly evolve new variants that evade immunity.

There are already approved vaccines and antivirals available to fight monkeypox, unlike at the start of the COVID-19 pandemic. The smallpox vaccine is scored approximately 85% effective against monkeypox.

While concerning, the current monkeypox outbreak is still far smaller in scale compared to COVID-19.

Monkeypox In India

India, which had previously been spared from the Monkeypox outbreak, reported its first case on July 24, 2022. When the first Monkeypox case was reported in India, the patient, a 35-year-old man from Kollam, Kerala, had recently returned from the United Arab Emirates (UAE). The patient showed a high temperature, got pain in the chest, and developed a rash that required the state and the district surveillance units to begin contact tracing. The sample of the suspected person was sent to the ICMR-National Institute of Virology (NIV) in Pune for confirmation and it was collected from the body by scraping. The laboratory testing using real-time PCR for Orthopoxvirus confirmed the diagnosis of Monkeypox.

Since then, the country has seen a steady rise in Monkeypox cases, with 10 confirmed cases reported as of August 13, 2022. Interestingly, 30% of these cases did not have a history of travel or close contact with known cases, suggesting the possibility of community transmission.

A study published in the Indian Journal of Health Sciences and Biomedical Research (KLEU) in 2023 used an Auto-Regressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA) model to forecast the Monkeypox infection rate for the top five countries with the highest cases, including the United States, Spain, Germany, England, and France. The study found that in the 50 days starting on August 2, 2022, the infection rate in the United States was predicted to be close to 7.5%

The study review highlighted the Indian government’s efforts to tackle the Monkeypox outbreak. The Ministry of Health and Family Welfare (MOHFW) had proposed the guide lines to manage the cases of Monkeypox in three main government hospitals in Delhi and then further even extended to include six more hospitals. The National Institute of Virology (NIV) in Pune was the nodal center for Monkeypox diagnosis by RT-PCR, and the Indian Council of Medical Research (ICMR) approved 15 more institutions to conduct the RT-PCR test for confirmation.

Despite these efforts, the Monkeypox outbreak in India continues to be a concern. A study published in 2022 in the Journal of Research in Health Sciences highlighted the potential for Monkeypox to become the “next pandemic,” emphasizing the need for continued vigilance and preparedness measures. Additionally, a 2022 article from the University of Michigan School of Public Health noted that while Monkeypox shares some similarities with COVID-19, it is a different disease with its own unique characteristics, such as the primary mode of transmission through close, intimate contact.

Conclusion

Monkeypox is a serious viral disease that has seen a significant global outbreak. To effectively manage and contain the spread of monkeypox, several key actions are crucial:

Increased testing capacity is essential. Currently, only specialized labs can perform the necessary tests to diagnose monkeypox. Expanding access to monkeypox testing will enable earlier detection and treatment, which is critical to controlling the outbreak.

Vaccination is recommended for those at high risk of exposure, such as healthcare workers, men who have sex with men, and individuals with multiple sexual partners. Providing vaccines to these groups can help prevent infection and further transmission.

While monkeypox cases is still on, experts expect the outbreak to eventually decline. It is important to avoid fear-mongering and instead listen to guidance from public health authorities . Importantly, monkeypox patients should not be targeted or stigmatized. The disease can affect anyone, and a compassionate, non-discriminatory approach is essential.

By increasing testing capabilities, vaccinating high-risk populations, and following the advice of medical experts, the 2022-2023 monkeypox outbreak can be effectively managed and contained.

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